Friday, February 20, 2009

Re-default rates are 55%

Wow.  The link leads to a .pdf published by the treasury department and based on data collected during 2008.  The data presented is based on 9 banks and 5 thrifts.  Page 5 has the key information. 

In the first quarter of 2008, 72,877 loans were modified, and payment plans for an additional 136,874 were accepted.  The kicker, after just 1 quarter 37% of the loans were again in default.  (Remember these were modified between Jan - March 2008 and were in default by April - Jun 08).  The default rate for the 6 month period of time following the modification is 55.14% (Remember - the big layoffs have not occured by September 08.  Those occur after November through the present)

In my post yesterday, I commented how the administration's plan relies on those who made poor borrowing decisions and poor lending decisions.  The WSJ points out

Sadly for those who deferred the gratification of homeownership, the 20% down payment has now become industry standard. But at least their taxes will allow other people to stay in homes they can't afford.

Then there is:

Given that mortgage fraud skyrocketed during the housing boom, and that the Obama Administration intends to assist up to nine million troubled borrowers, we can say with certainty that the unscrupulous will be among those rescued.

Remember, Instugator's Rescue is not a bailout - the Rescue relies on those who have made good decisions in the past in order to achieve broader economic results for the rest of us.





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